Fixed rates are rising again — here’s what it really means
Every week someone asks me the same question:
“Are interest rates going up or down?”
And lately, there’s been a big clue sitting right in front of us…
Banks have started increasing their fixed rates.
Most people miss why this matters.
But fixed rates are often the first domino to move, long before the RBA makes an announcement.
And it’s not the first time this has happened.
Back in October 2021, the big four banks started lifting fixed rates while the RBA cash rate was still 0.10%.
Seven months later — May 2022 — the RBA officially began the rate-hike cycle.
Fixed rates told the story long before the headlines did.
Why does this happen?
Because fixed rates don’t move based on what the RBA says.
They move based on what banks expect is coming.
And right now, banks are preparing themselves to pay more in 2026 to borrow money themselves.
So they’re quietly passing that cost on… early.
We’re also seeing some banks increase savings rates to attract deposits, because they need more money to lend out.
But here’s the part most people don’t realise:
The RBA doesn’t fully control interest rates.
They set the short-term cash rate…
But the bond market sets the long-term rates, the ones that shape mortgages, business loans and big financial decisions.
Long-term rates move based on things no government can fully control:
• What investors think inflation will do
• How much government debt is being issued
• Global money moving in or out of Australia
• Investor confidence (or fear) around the world
Even if the RBA cuts rates, long-term rates can stay high if investors are nervous.
Think of it like this:
The RBA sets the price of money today.
The bond market sets the price of money tomorrow.
And the bond market is full of people who spend their entire lives analysing inflation, risk, debt and returns.
So when they push yields up, it’s rarely by accident.
So what should you do with this?
If you have a mortgage:
Review your plan now.
Don’t assume rates will fall, they look like they will rise in 2026.
If you’re considering fixing:
Know that banks are starting to price in what they expect next.
If uncertainty stresses you out, or you’re carrying a large amount of debt, understand what fixing actually looks like for your situation.
If you’re saving or investing:
High savings rates can be temporary.
Use them wisely while they last.
There’s a quote I always come back to:
“Don’t watch what people say. Watch where their money goes.”
If you want to get ahead of what rising interest rates could mean for your loan, contact us with RATES or SMS to 0483 937 777 and we’ll run the numbers with you.
Because when the banks start moving… they’re usually not guessing.
7Wealth Pty Ltd ABN 44609210246 is a Corporate Authorised Representatives and is authorised throughCobalt AdvisersPty Ltd ABN 64 628 654 099 who is an Australian Financial Services Licensee 512550. 7Wealth Pty Ltd is a Credit Representative ofAustralian Finance GroupLtd ABN 11 066 385 822 (AFG) Australian Credit Licence 389087.
This blog contains information that is general in nature. It does not constitute financial or taxation advice. The information does not take into account your objectives, needs and circumstances. We recommend that you obtain investment and taxation advice specific to your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs before making any investment decision or acting on any of the information contained in this document. Subject to law, Cobalt Advisers Pty Ltd nor their directors, employees or authorised representatives, do not give any representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information; or accepts any responsibility for any person acting, or refraining from acting, on the basis of the information contained in this document.
