REAL ESTATE REALITY ZONE

The RE Reality Zone is a quick summary of key real estate market data available for you to get clarity on the market trends without getting lost in the noise of fake news, YouTube clickbait, or data overwhelm.

30 Second Summary

If you only have 30 seconds read this:

Mortgage Interest rates stayed about the same this week. Sales are higher this week than last year, a good sign.

With an expectation to go to back to the booming economy levels of 2016-2020, optimism is higher. Seasonally, the national supply of single-family houses (inventory) is LOWER, and will decline for the remainder of the year, (total inventory still 25% below pre-pandemic level).

The new listing volume continues to show very low motivation for sellers to sell. The lack of sellers has been coined “the Great Stay”. Low inventory and low Sellers have kept home prices about 5% higher compared to this point in 2023 (nationally). Interestingly, the country has a different real estate market in half the country. Half has a higher inventory and is softer than the other half. The Reality Zone shows those differences.

Nothing shows a crash in price imminent unless the greater economy tanks. Loan delinquency has had a 16-month consecutive increase of 5% year over year.

Make your purchase and sale decisions based on the fact that the sales pace gets slower in most areas in the second half of the year. If you have houses on the market, price to sell now.

Key Stats

If you have 2.5 more minutes see below:

(Stats from from Altos, Housingwire, Jason Hartman, Joe Manausa, and others)

Last week’s SFH Inventory on Market: $690,015 (Altos)

This week’s SFH Inventory on Market: $682,150 (26.6% higher than same week last year)

Listing volume – 45,000 new listings (14% higher than same week last year)

Sales volume – 50,000 new contracts (3% higher than same week last year)

This week’s TOTAL SFH in Contract status: no data

This week’s price reductions are Lower at 38.2% = High (normal is 30-35%).

(A leading indicator of buyer demand strength, and home price direction)

Last week’s on-market SFH Median Home Price: no data

This Week’s on-market SFH Median Home Price: no data

Last week’s Median Price of Homes in Contracts: $384,900

This Week’s Median Price of Homes in Contracts: $383,700 (5% higher than same week last year)

Last week’s Median Price of New Listings: $375,000

This Week’s Median Price of New Listings: no data

Housing Vacancy Rate: 6.9% – very low (quarterly)

National vacancy rates in the third quarter 2024 were 6.9 percent for rental housing and 1 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate was slightly higher than the rate in the second quarter 2024 (6.6 percent) and than the rate in the third quarter 2024 (6.6 percent).. Source

United States Single Family Home Prices

Source: tradingeconomics.com

United States Total Housing Inventory

Charts below updated on December 17, 2024

Policy Watch

– Look for economic changes to increase national revenue, like energy sales. Hard to say what the affects will be on mortgage interest rates.

— The US owes 36 Trillion dollars in national debt, please hold our leaders accountable to reduce that number and be fiscally responsible. Yes it means tough discussions on what should be cut.

— Are the BRICS nations going to get off the Dollar and go to gold or a digital currency? It seems like those countries would not be able to organize themselves enough to do it, but they are sure trying hard to unseat the dollar. Firm but fair financial system management is critical.

— The jobs report is important. Please know when the gov puts out a report like “jobs”, there is a revision done a month or so later when they crunch the actual numbers. The press rarely reports the revisions, but that is the most accurate. I advise you to ignore the initial reports and ONLY look at the later revised reports for a more accurate view. They indicate part time, full time, or foreign born jobs, those are categories that matter. Lets see if we can recover jobs next year.

— In my view, everything is about to get better with a reduction in Federal involvement in everything, delineated to the states, and reduction in Fed spending I hope.

— Please say NO to Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in any form (ie Fedcoin).

– Passive income from RE is a shield for most of this, whereas “flipping” and wholesaling can stop at any time.

Mortgage Applications & Rates

Because the current market relies HEAVILY on the CHANGE in mortgage rates, we’ve added this section.

Key Mortgage Stats:

30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.85% as of December 26, 2024 (previously 6.72%)

MBA Mortgage Applications: -0.70% as of December 19, 2024 (previously 5.40%)

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage surged to 6.85% as of December 26th, 2024, rebounding for the second consecutive week to the highest level since early June. The rise aligned with soaring US Treasury yields, as markets adjusted expectations for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts, influenced by hawkish projections, weaker economic data, and inflation concerns.

“Mortgage rates increased for the second straight week, rebounding after a decline from earlier this month. While a slight improvement in new and existing home sales is encouraging, the market remains plagued by an overwhelming undersupply of homes. A strong economy can help build momentum heading into the new year and potentially boost purchase activity,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.

Source: Trading Economics

Mortgage applications in the US eased by 0.7% from the previous week in the period ending December 13th, trimming the 5.4% surge in the previous week, according to data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association. It was the first drop in mortgage demand in five weeks, aligned with a rise in benchmark interest rates as expectations of fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year lifted yields in longer-term fixed income instruments.

Applications for a mortgage to purchase a new home rose by 1%. In turn, applications for a loan to refinance a mortgage, which are more sensitive to short term changes in interest rates, eased by 3% on the week following the 30% surge in the previous week, which undercut the current period’s jump in borrowing costs.

Source: Trading Economics

United States MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate


Source: Trading Economics

Delinquency & Foreclosures

Understand the leading indicator of borrower stress. (It will lag behind a few weeks before the data is reported)

ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Hit Highest Level in Nearly Three Years; Prepayments Drop on Higher Rates

  • The national delinquency rate jumped 29 basis points (bps) in November to 3.74%, its highest level in almost three years, marking six consecutive months of year over year increases

  • While much of November’s spike was driven by seasonality, post-hurricane distress, and a late-in-the-month Thanksgiving, delinquencies more broadly continue to rise from recent year lows

  • Early-, mid- and late-stage defaults all rose in November, with seriously delinquent loans – 90 or more days past due but not in active foreclosure – now at the highest level since February 2023

  • Both foreclosure starts and completions dropped in November and remain well below pre-pandemic levels, leaving 31K fewer loans in active foreclosure than at the same time last year

  • Prepayment activity fell -25.0% month over month on October’s higher interest rates, and remains nearly 30% off last year’s levels

US Historical Foreclosure Activity and Rates

Population Growth

Top Ten Growing States

Top Ten Declining States

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