With an expectation to go to back to the booming economy levels of 2016-2020, optimism is higher. Seasonally, the national supply of single-family houses (inventory) is LOWER, and will decline for the remainder of the year, (total inventory still 25% below pre-pandemic level).
The new listing volume continues to show very low motivation for sellers to sell. The lack of sellers has been coined “the Great Stay”. Low inventory and low Sellers have kept home prices about 5% higher compared to this point in 2023 (nationally). Interestingly, the country has a different real estate market in half the country. Half has a higher inventory and is softer than the other half. The Reality Zone shows those differences.
Nothing shows a crash in price imminent unless the greater economy tanks. Loan delinquency has had a 16-month consecutive increase of 5% year over year.
Make your purchase and sale decisions based on the fact that the sales pace gets slower in most areas in the second half of the year. If you have houses on the market, price to sell now.
(Stats from from Altos, Housingwire, Jason Hartman, Joe Manausa, and others)
30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.85% as of December 26, 2024 (previously 6.72%)
MBA Mortgage Applications: -0.70% as of December 19, 2024 (previously 5.40%)
The national delinquency rate jumped 29 basis points (bps) in November to 3.74%, its highest level in almost three years, marking six consecutive months of year over year increases
While much of November’s spike was driven by seasonality, post-hurricane distress, and a late-in-the-month Thanksgiving, delinquencies more broadly continue to rise from recent year lows
Early-, mid- and late-stage defaults all rose in November, with seriously delinquent loans – 90 or more days past due but not in active foreclosure – now at the highest level since February 2023
Both foreclosure starts and completions dropped in November and remain well below pre-pandemic levels, leaving 31K fewer loans in active foreclosure than at the same time last year
Prepayment activity fell -25.0% month over month on October’s higher interest rates, and remains nearly 30% off last year’s levels